Experimental Forecast Tool to Release This Year: Big News for People Away from Coastal Areas

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The “cone of uncertainty” produced by the National Hurricane Center to forecast the location and ferocity of a tropical storm is getting an update this year to include predictions for inland areas, where wind and flooding are sometimes more treacherous than damage to the coasts.

The Miami-based hurricane center said Thursday on the X social media platform that the new, experimental forecast tool will be ready around Aug. 15, just before the traditional peak of the hurricane season that begins June 1.

“This experimental graphic will help better convey wind hazard risk inland in addition to coastal wind hazards,” the center said in the post.

The traditional cone in use for years generally shows the forecast track of a hurricane or tropical storm, but is focused on wind and storm surge along the coasts — and forecasters always warn not to focus on the center line alone.

Heavy rains and strong winds can be deadly and cause significant damage inland, which happened in 2022 with Hurricane Ian, when 149 people died in Florida.

The goal of the expanded forecast cone is to make sure people who don’t live along a coast are aware of the dangers they could still face, said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the hurricane center.

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