Historian Who’s Accurately Predicted Almost Every Election Since 1984 Reveals Who’ll Likely Have ‘Keys to the White House’ in 2024

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A historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nearly every presidential election going all the way back to 1984 is speaking out about this year’s election.

History professor Allan Lichtman, a Democrat who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C., has been remarkably accurate with his predictions, with his only incorrect call coming in the 2000 race between Al Gore and George W. Bush.

Lichtman’s prediction scheme rests on 13 “Keys to the White House.” If the incumbent party candidate secures eight or more of these keys, Lichtman says, he will win the election.

The professor created the scheme in the early 1980s and says that it can be successfully employed in presidential elections going back to at least 1860, according to MarketWatch.

As the 2024 election stands, Lichtman says President Joe Biden currently has the edge, but not all his keys have been awarded.

Biden — who many believe will eventually drop out of the race — has five of the 13 keys, while Donald Trump has three. That means five keys have yet to be secured, leaving Trump room to come from behind and take the win.

According to American University, the 13 keys are:

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