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A new poll shows Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin leading New York’s Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul for the second time in this race. It’s a tiny edge to be sure, but this is an absolutely stunning result in the deep blue Empire State.
The Trafalgar Group surveyed 1,198 likely voters and found Zeldin ahead by a margin of 48.4 to 47.6 percent, or 0.8 points, in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in over two decades. The poll was conducted between Thursday and Monday and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Trafalgar is a right-leaning pollster, but this group’s record for accuracy tops most of the mainstream polling firms. Notably, Trafalgar predicted former President Donald Trump’s shock victory in 2016.
Ten days ago, co/efficient, a less well-known pollster, found Zeldin ahead of Hochul by a margin of 45.6 to 45.3 percent.
At the time this poll was released, co/efficient’s Ryan Munce told The New York Post, “The race has been tightening over the last few weeks and it appears that it is now a dead heat. The shift has been led by predominantly white and Hispanic registered Democrats defecting to support Zeldin, the Republican candidate.”
The poll also found that 41 percent of voters viewed Zeldin favorably, compared to 36 percent who viewed Hochul favorably.
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